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Credit Euroization in the New EU Member States: Causes, Consequences and Some Lessons from Hungary
Harnych, Pavel ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hausenblas, Václav (referee)
This thesis examines issues related to the sharp surge in credit denominated in foreign currency (FX) in the New EU Member States before the advent of the recent crisis. We commence with the introduction of some stylized facts as well as decisive determinants of credit euroization, including the exchange rate regime. Subsequently, the economic performance and soaring volume of non-performing loans during the crisis are found to be adversely related to previous FX credit growth. Furthermore, we discuss some challenges, which are faced by the monetary authority of a credit euroized economy. Next, we construct a distinctive index on currency mismatch adjusted for unhedged borrowers, which appears to be significantly associated with country risk premia. The final chapter is devoted to the recent materialization of vulnerabilities connected to FX lending in Hungary. The sensitivity of this economy to exchange rate movements is illustrated by strong correlation between CDS spread and relevant exchange rates. Additionally, we scrutinize the latest version of controversial government schemes designed to mitigate the negative balance sheet effect on households indebted in FX. A unique estimation of the long-term costs of a CHF mortgage in comparison to a forint mortgage loan is provided. The impact of...
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Napětí na devizovém trhu: měření pomocí teorie extrémních hodnot
Zuzáková, Barbora ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Benecká, Soňa (referee)
This thesis discusses the phenomenon of currency crises, in particular it is devoted to empirical identification of crisis periods. As a crisis indicator, we aim to utilize an exchange market pressure index which has been revealed as a very powerful tool for the exchange market pressure quantification. Since enumeration of the exchange market pressure index is crucial for further analysis, we pay special attention to different approaches of its construction. In the majority of existing literature on exchange market pressure models, a currency crisis is defined as a period of time when the exchange market pressure index exceeds a predetermined level. In contrast to this, we incorporate a probabilistic approach using the extreme value theory. Our goal is to prove that stochastic methods are more accurate, in other words they are more reliable instruments for crisis identification. We illustrate the application of the proposed method on a selected sample of four central European countries over the period 1993 - 2012, or 1993 - 2008 respectively, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The choice of the sample is motivated by the fact that these countries underwent transition reforms to market economies at the beginning of 1990s and therefore could have been exposed to speculative attacks on their newly arisen currencies. These countries are often assumed to be relatively homogeneous group of countries at similar stage of the integration process. Thus, a resembling development of exchange market pressure, particularly during the last third of the estimation period, would not be surprising.
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Impact of euro adoption on Slovak’s economy, focusing on competitiveness
Závadská, Jana ; Bič, Josef (advisor) ; Šaroch, Stanislav (referee)
Thesis analyzes different indicators of competitiveness in period before and after adopting of euro in Slovakia. First chapter contains theoretical background, defines competitiveness and methods of its measuring. Second chapter analyzes development of macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, government debt and deficit. Aim od third chapter is to evaluate competitiveness of Slovakia, using different competitiveness reports and this chapter also contains analysis of unit labor costs, labor productivity and real effective exchange rate. Fourth chapter is analyzing different exchange rate regimes and compares impact of financial crisis on Slovak and Czech economy due to the fact, that countries had different exchange rate regimes in this period.
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Theoretical And Practical Aspects Of The Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Applied on Venezuelan Bolivar Between 2003 And 2010
Hőnigová, Nina ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Čajka, Radek (referee)
The Master's thesis analyses the macroeconomic aspects of the exchange rate policy of the administration of president Hugo Chávez Frías in Venezuela in 2003 - 2010. The author focuses first on the comparison of different exchange rate regimes and their compatibility with the commodity depended economies. A special attention is paid to the concept of Peg to Export Price regime (PEP), also called oil standard, of Jeffrey Frankel and its suitability for contemporary Venezuela. The goal of the thesis is to stress that even though the election of a correct exchange rate regime is of great importance for an exporting economy, the success can be achieved only when combining it with an appropriate monetary and fiscal policy. Without an adequate economic policy the regime alone can not provide stability and moderate high inflation.
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Evaluation Of Exchange Rate Regimes During And After Currency Crises
Zadák, Miroslav ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
Currency crises have become an essential part of one's economy life. The periodicity of currency crises and its implications towards the real economy is an issue which the international economics should bear in mind. The thesis which I am presenting tries to give an overview how the exchange rate regimes interact with the currency crises. Firstly, the Market Pressure Index (MPI), which is used for catching the crises, is introduced. Then after the introduction chapters I use gathered data to analyze the observed crises. The last chapter is there to give a summary about obtained knowledge. The most valuable information, regarding the currency crises, is that the stricter the monetary regime after the currency crises is the less of the output occurs. This is the main finding emerged from the pre and post analysis of monetary regimes. Another finding is that the loss of output is primarily connected with a shift from any pegged arrangement to a floating arrangement. The shifts which took place under the pegged arrangements completely do not seem to have an impact towards the real output. Finally, Real Exchange Effective Rate seems to be an element which connects all the studied crises. This opinion reflects the current research topic in international economics.
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Currency crisis in Czech rep. in 1997 and its alternative scenarios
Otřísal, Gabriel ; Skopeček, Jan (advisor) ; Svoboda, Miroslav (referee)
This paper is dedicated to the first currency crisis in the Czech republic, which took place in 1997. It analyses the period perceding crisis, the development of the very crisis and its impacts. The main aim of this paper is to identify the crisis' roots and to map them. On this ground it consequently forms a hypothesis, that with a different mix of monetary and fiscal policy, nonexecution of currency interventions or with a sooner abandonment of the pegged exchange rate, we could have witnessed a different scenario. The paper is also complemented by a binary model of currency crisis prediction and an interview with a participant of the 1997' events.
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Development of Czech Republic's exchange rate policy since the beginning of the transformation
Kovářová, Petra ; Kalínská, Emílie (advisor) ; Žamberský, Pavel (referee)
The bachelor thesis deals with exchange rate policy in the Czech Republic. Preliminary, there are described types of exchange rate regimes and methods of influencing exchange rate by central banks. The work is focused on the development of the Czech Republic's exchange rate policy since the beginning of the economic transformation. It starts with the Czech Republic's introduction of internal convertibility in January 1991. Further the dissolution of Czechoslovakia and the monetary separation is mentioned. In 1995, external convertibility is introduced and it is followed by currency crisis in 1997. Attention is paid to the central bank's attempts to solve crisis which lead to exchange rate regime change in the end. In the next part, further development of exchange rate is described. At the end our chance to join euro in future is analysed.
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